Below is a featured article from Fire Safety Science News #36 by John R. Hall, Jr. of the National Fire Protection Association
Those of us in fire safety science try to ‘solve’ big parts of the fire problem, where ‘solve’ means a large reduction. Typically, a proposal for a new solution must overcome objections along the following lines:
- The solution won’t work. It is unreliable or ineffective.
- The solution costs too much. The benefits of are smaller than the costs.
- Other solutions are better. Changing behavior or changing some other involved item (e.g., switching between heat source and item ignited) would be better.
- The solution creates bigger problems (other types of harm) than it removes.
- The targeted fire problem is not that big and/or is declining rapidly. It does not need a solution.
Sometimes objections like these are accurate and deserve to be factored into the societal decisions about a particular solution. However, accurate or not, they will always be raised by parties who prioritize other factors over fire losses.
We have been working on the upholstered furniture fire problem for half a century. Along the way, we have built a consensus on what solutions work, how well they work, how much they cost, how much they are needed, and what non-fire consequences they have. More recently, that consensus has come unstuck because of accumulating evidence that some of our “solutions” create serious non-fire problems.
The signal event marking this changing consensus was the 2013 decision in California to delete the small open flame portion of the requirements contained in Technical Bulletin 117. This is – or was – the only regulation in North America that addressed non-smoldering fires involving upholstered furniture. Because California is such a large part of the North American market, TB 117 had an impact far beyond the state of California. I will leave it to others to describe the growing concerns with flame retardant treatments of upholstered furniture and associated effects on people’s health. In the limited space available here, I want to frame the discussion of what we should do next in terms of the size and characteristics of the fire problem. Our challenge is to develop a best estimate of the challenge we face, and then consider the pros and cons of alternative strategies to address that challenge.
From 1980-1984 to 2006-2010, estimated annual average home fires and losses involving upholstered furniture as the first item ignited declined substantially (see figure).
Figure: Number of US home fires and deaths with upholstered furniture as the first item ignited.
During this decline, civilian deaths declined by 61%, from 1,220 (25% of total home fire deaths) to 480 (19%), and fires declined by 77%, from 29,400 (4% of the total) to 6,700 (2%). Moreover, civilian injuries declined by 68%, from 2,630 (13% of the total) to 840 (7%), and direct property damage, after adjustment for inflation to 2010 dollars, declined by 17%, from $522 million (7% of the total) to $434 million (6%). On the one hand, this is a story of great progress, with hundreds of lives saved each year. On the other hand, this remains one of the largest parts of the U.S. fire death problem.
U.S. fire statistics are based on the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS), dating back to 1980. Starting in about 2003, changes to NFIRS made it possible to estimate fires associated with a product in the role of the most important secondary item ignited. Using this new data (see 2nd row in the table below), NFPA constructed the following analysis considering all of the large pieces of data in the furniture fire problem.
|
|
Fires |
Civilian Deaths |
Civilian Injuries |
Direct Damage (in US$ millions) |
|
Lighted tobacco product |
1,900 (21%)
|
270 (45%) |
320 (29%) |
$97 (17%) |
|
Open flame from other fire (secondary item) |
2,200 (25%) |
130 (21%) |
280 (25%) |
$138 (24%) |
|
Operating equipment |
1,500 (17%) |
70 (12%) |
140 (13%) |
$81 (14%) |
|
Small open flame |
1,400 (16%) |
60 (10%) |
220 (20%) |
$69 (12%) |
|
Ember, ash or other or unclassified hot or smoldering object |
1,300 (15%) |
60 (10%) |
130 (11%) |
$150 (27%) |
|
Unclassified, other or multiple heat source |
600 (7%) |
20 (3%) |
30 (3%) |
$31 (5%) |
|
Total |
8,900 (100%) |
610 (100%) |
1,120 (100%) |
$566 (100%) |
Table: Upholstered furniture home fire problem, 2006-2010 averages, by major scenario.
The figure below shows upholstered furniture fire deaths by type of ignition source. This comprehensive overview tells us some useful things. Lighted tobacco products (principally cigarettes, cigars and pipes, but not including matches and lighters) account for 45% of upholstered furniture home fire deaths, dwarfing any other scenario but not dwarfing all other scenarios combined.
The 12% share for operating equipment and the 10% share for ember, ash or other or unclassified hot or smoldering object, both could be treated as likely smoldering ignitions, addressable by a smoldering fire test, but it is not clear that these fires are well represented by a lit cigarette applied to places where discarded cigarettes tend to land. The 31% of deaths associated with some kind of flaming ignition are numerous enough to justify our attention.
The question finally is what to do with this information. NFPA has been asked to develop a flaming-ignition test for upholstered furniture. In the process, we are considering not just small flaming ignitions but also ignitions by another burning object. Our goal is to be able to assess candidate technologies and designs for their effectiveness in addressing scenarios of importance. The question of when and whether to build binding requirements around any test is a separate question that involves other considerations.
I don’t know anyone who wants to adopt a requirement that can be satisfied only by technologies that create more problems than they solve. I understand different parties have different opinions about the implications of the evidence for reliability, effectiveness, cost, and non-fire effects. I have a problem with anyone who wants to prejudge the debate by excluding certain fires or certain non-fire effects from the discussion. I know my employer, NFPA, is trying very hard to be a fair and honest broker in these discussions and to keep the discussion and the search for solutions comprehensive in every sense of the word. I hope readers of this piece will do likewise.
You can read additional articles on this topic published in the IAFSS Newsletter, Fire Safety Science News on this topic:
In Fire Safety Science News #36:
Effectiveness vs. Toxicity of Flame Retardants by David Rich
Open Flame Testing of Upholstered Furniture and Fire Safety by Marcelo M. Hirschler
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Bronwyn Forrest is a 3rd year PhD student at the University of Waterloo, conducting multi-disciplinary research investigating human physiological response to fire exposure. Bronwyn graduated in 2017 with a BSc. Honours Kinesiology and in 2020 with a MASc. Mechanical & Mechatronics Engineering (Heat Release Rate in Ventilation-Limited Furniture Fires) before merging her two degrees in her PhD research. As a senior graduate student in the Fire Research Group, Bronwyn spear-heads large-scale fire experiments, mentors junior graduate and undergraduate students, and has recently set-up a new ‘human exposure lab’ at the Fire Research Facility where she leads new research in that area. Since her induction into the world of fire science, Bronwyn has grown more and more passionate about the multi-faceted nature of emerging fire safety challenges. Through innovative research, she hopes to make meaningful contributions that help shape changes to fire safety over the course of her career.
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Brian J. Meacham, PhD, PE (CT&MA), EUR ING, CEng (UK), FIFireE, FSFPE, is the Managing Principal of Meacham Associates. He develops risk-informed performance-based solutions to complex building and infrastructure challenges, provides peer-review services, and undertakes building and fire regulatory system studies. He also conducts research in these areas as well as in sustainable and fire resilient built environments and fire safety technologies. Brian has authored more than 300 publications, given more than 300 presentations and has been awarded more than $4M in research funding. His prior positions include Associate Professor of Fire Protection Engineering at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Principal at Arup, Technical Director and Research Director at SFPE, and fire safety engineer in Europe and the USA. Brian is Chair of the ICC Performance Code Committee, Chair of the NFPA Technical Committee on Fire Risk Assessment Methods, Immediate Past Chair of the International Association for Fire Safety Science (IAFSS), a Past President of the SFPE, and a past Chair of the Inter-jurisdictional Regulatory Collaboration Committee (IRCC). He is a licensed Professional Engineer in CT and MA, a Chartered Engineer and Fellow of the Institution of Fire Engineers (UK), a registered European Engineer (EUR ING), a Fellow of the SFPE, and a Fulbright Global Scholar.
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Yu Wang is a professor at the State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China (USTC). He got joint Ph.D. from USTC and the City University of Hong Kong in 2016 and had working experience at the University of Edinburgh, Worcester Polytechnic Institute and National University of Singapore before returning to China in 2020. His primary research areas are high-rise building fire and large outdoor fire. Yu has published over 50 SCI journal papers, and is currently an Associate Editor in Fire Technology and Editorial Board Member in Fire Safety Journal. He initiated the first English fire course at USTC, Introduction of Fire Dynamics, reported by China News and People’s Daily Online (over 260,000 audiences). In recent years, he has received SFPE Global 5 Under 35 Award, Youth May Fourth Medal (Anhui Province), Young Faculty Career Award (USTCAF), and some Best Paper/Presentation/Poster/Image Awards in IAFSS or AOSFST.
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Dr. Shuna Ni is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Fire Protection Engineering at the University of Maryland, College Park. She received her Ph.D. degree at Texas A&M University in 2018 and her Master’s degree at Tongji University in 2013. Dr. Ni’s research focuses on fire forensics, structural fire engineering, WUI fire resilience, fire safety of tall mass-timber buildings and fire-related multiple hazards. Her research has been funded by National Science Foundation, National Institute of Justice, Fire Protection Research Foundation, University Transportation Centers under the Department of Transportation, Grand Challenges Grants Program at the University of Maryland and industrial partners.
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